Wei Zhong，Yushim Kim & Megan Jehn , 2013: “Modeling dynamics of an influenza pandemic with heterogeneous coping behaviors: case study of a 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Arizona”, Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory (2013) 19:622–645

    This paper aims to improve the accuracy of standard compartment models in modeling the dynamics of an influenza pandemic. Standard compartment models, which are commonly used in influenza simulations, make unrealistic assumptions about human behavioral responses during a pandemic outbreak. Existing simulation models with public avoidance also make a rigid assumption regarding the human behavioral response to influenza. This paper incorporates realistic assumptions regarding individuals’ avoidance behaviors in a standard compartment model. Both the standard and modified models are parameterized, implemented, and compared in the research context of the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona. The modified model with heterogeneous coping behaviors forecasts influenza spread dynamics better than the standard model when evaluated against the empirical data, especially for the beginning of the 2009–2010 normal influenza season starting in October 2009 (i.e., the beginning of the second wave of 2009 H1N1). We end the paper with a discussion of the use of simulation models in efforts to help communities effectively prepare for and respond to influenza pandemics.

包含异构应对行为的流感大流行传播机制模拟：基于亚利桑那州2009年H1N1流感爆发的个案研究

摘要：本文旨在提高标准分室模型模拟流感大流行传播机制的准确度。当用于流感模拟时，标准分室模型所做的关于流感爆发期大众行为反应的假定不切实际；而已有包含公众自我保护行为的模拟模型对于大众流感反应的假设过于又机械化。本研究在标准分室模型中包含贴合实际大众行为反应的假设，并将修改后的模型与标准分室模型分别用于模拟2009年亚利桑那州内H1N1流感爆发的传播情况。模拟结果显示，修改后包含大众异构应对行为的模型比标准分室模型在预测流感传播机制上更准确，模拟结果更贴近实际经验数据。文章最后讨论仿真模拟在有效准备与应对流感大流行中的应用。（Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory ，2013，SSCI)